ICES evaluation of iCod HCR

This is an evolving space. Text, structure, reference to documents and even document versions can be changed/deleted by the users who have access. The lot that has access are:

• The natives: Árni, Björn, Einar, Höski.
• The aliens: Dankert, Jose, Peter

All formal documentation / audit trail / communication is now on the ICES groupnet site. See: http://groupnet.ices.dk/advice2009/ADGICMP

Track of all documents in the :icod:icodsim space will be found here –> docs

The Icelandic government requested ICES to evaluate current HCR rule, set in place in May 2009. Following formal correspondence have taken place between the Icelandic government and ICES secretariat:

• The request from the Ministry of Fisheries, letter dated May 22 2009 20090522icelandtoices.pdf.
• The response from ICES secretariat, June 17 2009, suggesting procedures to set in place 20090617icestoiceland.pdf
• The response from the Ministry of Fisheries, letter dated August 21 20090821icelandtoices.pdf

The essence of the request is: The management scheme since mid 1990's has been to increase the size of the cod stock towards that size that generates maximum sustainable yield. In accordance with the general aim, a management plan for the next five fishing years, starting by the 2009/2010 fishing season has been adopted with the main objective to ensure that the SSB in 2015 will with high probability (>95%) be above the present size of 220 kkt. According to simulation done by the NWWG 2009 this can be achieved by applying the following HRC rule:
TAC_y+1 = (0.2 B_4+,y + TAC_y)/2

The Government of Iceland requests the Council to evaluate this management plan at its earliest convenience.

If the necessary technical work is available by end of October, an evaluation meeting in November could be set in place and the advice from ICES could be delivered in December. An ICES review group and a domestic working group have been put in place. The former group will be responsible for making a technical review of a report generated by the latter group.

The final deadline of the delivery of the working group report is 31. October 2009.

With an evaluation meeting in November - no specific dates set, yet. Nor venue.

The advice from ICES will be delivered in December - no specific date set, yet.

The following experts have kindly accepted to be reviewers of the iCod HCR evaluation:

• Jose de Oliveira, CEFAS, England
• Peter Shelton, DFO, Canada
• Dankert Skagen, IMR, Norway

In addition to performing review on the final WG report, it is anticipated that the reviewers will be introduced to (and get involved in) the process at an early stage. Or as stated in the response letter from ICES to the Ministry of Fisheries: ”It is important for the process to have communication between the Icelandic scientists and the reviewers throughout the process in order to ensure that there is agreement on the analyses and simulations that are required from the beginning. This suggests that a shadow group should be established with some reviewers and some central placed Icelandic scientists to give input to the process. Through this process it is likely that additional analyses required after the November meeting will be limited.” The first (and the last?) web-based meeting has been set 6.10.2009 (see below).

An internal working group has been formed to deal with the work and documentation to be sent to ICES. The group consist of the following people:

• Árni Magnússon
• Ásta Guðmundsdóttir
• Björn Ævarr Steinarsson
• Einar Hjörleifsson (chair)
• Guðmundur Þórðarson
• Höskuldur Björnsson
• Þorvaldur Gunnlaugsson.

The brunt of the work will be carried out by Árni, Einar and Höski, other members will act as support team. An account of formal meetings is found here.

It has been decided and accepted that an initial web-meeting between the natives and the reviewers will take place Tuesday, October 6th 2009, 2 pm (Copenhagen time). It is suggested that the contribution from the native WG-members at the meeting may be as follows:

1. Current NWWG iCod stock assessment (data and methods)
   • For now, the best documentation is the latest NWWG report. The iCod section, recognizing that it may be limited with regards to some technicalities, is provide here.
2. Background, including and account of The history of the iCod HCR rule (for the novice a HRC-rule, in one form or another, has been in place since 1994).
   • … namespace to be added.
3. Proposal for intended work (including status of what has been done so far)
   • Definition of reference points (no formal ICES defined reference points exits for iCod).
     • … a namespace is provided here
   • The current management system
     • … to be added.
   • The simulation input parameters, historical evaluations and suggestions for input - outline of sections:
     • current place holder is the ICES NWWG 2009 groupnet NWWG 2009 WD site (limited access). Soon to be moved to The iCodHRC review group site
   • The software platforms to be used
     • ADCAM (the ADMODEL framework used in historical assessment and simulations)
     • FPRESS - “an off-the-shelf-software” to be run in parallel.
       1. generic FPRESS stuff - see (not a useful link, for now - just some technicalities related to bugs) here
       2. iCod adaptations
4. Proposal for report structure - some thoughts [read: ad hoc-ish document for the moment]provided here, but in the end this is where the action will be.

The objective of the meeting is to get feedback from the reviewers with regards the suggestion of the approach taken

Place: …

Dates: …

Participants: Dankert, Jose, Peter, ??Einar, ??*